The U.S. dollar could build on its strong gains this year, even with the Federal Reserve not raising rates, as the United States’ economic prospects near term look far less grim than those of other countries.
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s performance against a basket of six currencies, is up more than 1 percent in 2019. Last week, it reached its highest level since Feb. 15. Against the euro, the dollar is up 2 percent this year and notched its biggest weekly gain in six months on Friday.
The dollar’s rise defies the consensus from earlier in the year that the U.S. currency would go down as the Federal Reserve signaled fewer rate hikes moving forward. New tame inflation data on Tuesday supported the Fed’s new tact.
“The dollar has stayed bid on the back of safe-haven demand,” said Peter Ng, senior FX trader at Silicon Valley Bank. “The global slowdown is affecting everyone and at the current moment, it doesn’t seem like there are any good replacements for the dollar.”
Investors across the globe and asset classes are fretting over the possibility of a slowdown in economic growth amid weakening data.
Chinese exports dropped 20.7 percent in February from the year-earlier period, handedly missing expectations.
In the U.S., jobs creation came to an almost screeching halt in February as only 20,000 jobs were added. Economists polled by Refinitv expected the U.S. economy to have added 180,000 jobs last month. Some experts, however, attributed some of the hiring weakness to factors like weather and lingering effects from the government shutdown.
Over in Europe, the European Central Bank slashed its euro zone growth forecast for 2019 to 1.1 percent from 1.7 percent. ECB President Mario Draghi also said Thursday there is a “sizable moderation in economic expansion that will extend into the current year.”
But despite the broad slowdown in economic data, U.S. growth remains solid compared to other countries. The U.S. economy grew by 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018. Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management said Tuesday its nonmanufacturing activity index rose 3 points to 59.7 in February.
The relative economic strength in the U.S. versus the rest of the world also has traders chasing the dollar because of comparatively higher interest rates. The 2-year Treasury note yield traded at 2.47 percent on Monday. Germany’s 2-year sovereign paper, meanwhile, yielded negative 0.54 percent. Japan’s 2-year note yield was also in negative territory. In other words, it is currently more profitable to own U.S. dollars versus most major currencies.
“If you compare the rates across the board, the U.S. still far outperforms,” Silicon Valley Bank’s Ng said.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell told CBS’ “60 Minutes” he thinks the U.S. economy is still strong, but noted there is a chance that overseas weakness could start hitting the U.S.